Week 10: Buffalo Bulls
Can Akron actually have a winning streak?
When the Akron Zips (2-6, 1-3 MAC) kickoff their week 10 matchup with the Buffalo Bulls (4-4, 2-2 MAC) on Saturday November 2, they will still be in the hunt for a bowl game. It’s the first time since 2021 that Akron has been able to pick up their second win of the season before the end of October. It’s certainly not an impressive accomplishment, but it’s a step in the right direction regardless. There is plenty of room for improvement following the dramatic win over Eastern Michigan, and Buffalo is going to bring everything they’ve got to Infocision Stadium.
After winning their first 8 matchups with Buffalo, the Bulls have won 12 of the last 15 games against Akron, including 6 straight dating back to 2018.
The full series history can be found at Winsipedia.
Looking at the Bulls
I made sure to note in my posts following Akron’s win over EMU that Buffalo is going to come to Akron angry and in need of a win. I’d compare their mentality to Bowling Green’s when they came to Akron on October 5. It had been over a month since the Falcons had won a game, but they put up great performances against great opponents in that stretch. In the case of Buffalo, they have had a great first season under head coach Pete Lembo, getting off to a 3-1 start before sputtering a bit, leaving them with their 4-4 record. The Bulls opened MAC play 2-0 with upset wins at #23 Northern Illinois and a dominant performance against Toledo at home. Buffalo then faced a pair of common opponents with Akron, as they dropped a back-and-forth home game with Western Michigan 48-41 before going to Athens, OH last week where they made too many early mistakes and let it get away from them, 47-16.
At Quarterback for UB is the former SEMo transfer CJ Ogbonna. He was used primarily as a runner last season, much like Akron does with Tahj Bullock. Now, Ogbonna is developing himself more and more as a passer with each passing week. He is taking great care of the ball despite the increased reps through the air, only throwing two interceptions so far in 2024, while only carrying the ball for 100 yards along with three touchdowns. The Buffalo offensive attack is a pretty balanced one, despite their rushing attack slowing down a bit last week at Ohio. They average 200 yards through the air, and 168 on the ground in MAC play. Al-Jay Henderson is the number one back for the Bulls, leading in both carries and yards at 83 for 455. In the loss to WMU, they racked up 551 yards but could not contain WMU’s strong rushing attack. My key matchup to watch when Buffalo has the ball is how the Bulls’ offensive line handles the Akron defensive front that has been performing pretty well lately. They are near the bottom of the league in the number of sacks allowed during conference play, even with a quarterback who is mobile. Their pass catchers haven’t really stood out either, with Victor Snow leading the way on 30 catches for 375 yards and three scores through the first half of MAC play.
The strength of the Buffalo program lies in the linebacking corps. While the defense as a whole has struggled greatly at times in 2024, especially allowing 47+ points in back to back weeks, they can rely on their linebackers to show up every game. Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock are both in the top 3 in total tackles nationally, with Dolac leading the way and Murdock coming in at 3rd. Those two have combined for 5 sacks as well and Dolac has picked off a pair of passes. A thing to keep in mind with this Buffalo defense, they do not have a single defensive lineman in their top seven in tackles. Their defensive backfield gives up the 4th most passing yards in the MAC with 270 per game as well. It’s not unreasonable to think this game could be a bit higher in scoring than most Akron games if both teams are able to play relatively mistake-free football.
Something to factor in when playing Buffalo is the fact that Pete Lembo is their head coach. Flat out, Lembo knows how to win at this level. Before leaving Ball State on his own terms to focus on the love of his coaching life (special teams), he compiled a 33-29 record with a 23-17 mark in MAC play. He won 9 games in 2012 and 10 games in 2013, but was never able to win the title thanks in big part to NIU being on their big run in the MAC West at that time. It’s frustrating, as an Akron fan, to see Lembo step into Buffalo very late in the cycle this past year and immediately have the Bulls competing in and winning games against the best teams in the MAC. I guess that also says a lot about former head coach Maurice Linguist, a great recruiter who left a lot of talent on the roster.
As for the Zips
For the first time since the 2014 season, the Akron Zips have led at some point in each of their first four MAC games. In their last two, they have led by a combined 35-0 before allowing any points. The issue has been, as soon as they take those leads, the wheels sort of begin to fall off in one way or another. At Western Michigan, they took a 17-0 lead, actually got a stop, and began to let it slip away with a bad special teams mistake. Against Eastern, they took an 18-0 lead into the half. Akron received the 2nd half kick, and allowed their drive to sputter at the EMU 35 yard-line with a chance to put it out of reach with a touchdown. If Akron scored a touchdown on that drive or fielded the punt properly at WMU, these last two could have felt much different, and we could be going for a third straight win this week. Akron somehow managed to close out the EMU game and make it to this week still looking to magically make it to a bowl game.
I was pretty hard on QB Ben Finley after the Eastern game because I felt he left too many easy throws on the table. He missed a few open guys and left a deep ball short that would have been a touchdown, but was picked off instead. I give him a lot of credit for hanging in there and running the offense well, though, and Akron could not have won that game without him. He has a big opportunity to really help this offense open up even more against Buffalo. Like I said earlier, Buffalo’s DBs aren’t the greatest, and their pass rush is dead last in sacking the quarterback in MAC play. Combine those factors with an Akron offensive line that is pass blocking at a level Akron has not seen in ages, and we could be onto something here. My challenge to Finley this week is to take care of the ball and not throw any interceptions. His TD/INT ratio on the season is 8/8. Half of those touchdowns came against Colgate as well. With that said, head coach Joe Moorhead has figured out how to use QB Tahj Bullock in the offense, running in 4 red zone touchdowns in the last two games alone. If that is the price to pay for a couple of passing TDs for Finley, I think every party involved will be just fine with it.
Despite Akron’s newfound success on offense in the run game with RB Jordon Simmons and Bullock, I do expect Moorhead to be extra-motivated to air it out against Buffalo. With that said, I do not want to see a situation like we did against EMU where the run game is pounding out 7 yards per carry yet is abandoned later on for a passing game that is struggling. Simmons is 11th in the MAC in rushing yardage in league games on just 58 carries. It’s safe to say that Akron and its offensive line has come a long way in both the passing and running game. We would all like to see the staff put a bit more emphasis on the run, or at least find a better way to blend the run in with the pass. Far too often, it feels like the offense falls in love with the passing game when the run game has been efficient as opposed to using one to set up the other.
Akron’s defense is playing very well right now. While they do give up a lot of yards, they have done a great job of keeping most teams out of the end zone, especially early on in games. This has given the offense all of its chances to take leads early in games which is a great step in the right direction. They did give up 30 to Ohio but that included a safety and bad interception thrown in their own territory by Finley. And the 34 points surrendered at WMU were mostly off Akron turnovers, including a muffed punt recovered in the end zone. Defensive coordinator Tim Tibesar has done a great job with the defense once again, keeping the team in all of these games so far, giving them a chance to win. A special shoutout goes to Justin Anderson and Paul Lewis for sticking with the play late in the game last week. EMU’s Elijah Jackson-Anderson seemed to make the play of the game on a 30-yard carry into Akron territory while needing a touchdown. Those two guys made the effort to punch the ball out on the tackle, and Akron was rewarded with possession following review.
Akron is actually tied for 2nd in the MAC in forced fumbles, which is great. On the other hand, we have played half of the MAC schedule, and the defense has yet to intercept a single pass. In fact, they only have two interceptions the entire season. That is not going to be a recipe for success in most cases. Again, I don’t want to sell the defense short, and they have faced some decent MAC quarterbacks. However, the Zips’ pass rush has been plenty good enough to force opposing QBs into bad decisions, the Zip DBs just seem to be a step behind instead of a step ahead in most cases. When the games have been as tight as Akron’s MAC games, one or two interceptions can make a world’s difference between winning and losing.
Other notes
As I write this, Buffalo is either a 1 or 1.5-point favorite at most sports books. It makes sense—UB has won 6-straight over Akron. They’re going to come ready to play and starving for a win after their first set of back-to-back losses. At 4-4, 2-2 MAC, they are still in the hunt for a bowl game, and even have a slim shot at making it to Detroit. Their final four games are as follows: at Akron, vs. Ball State, at Eastern Michigan, vs. Kent State. Those are all winnable games where UB is/will be the favorite in three. Here’s an opportunity for Akron to play spoiler, with a chance to all but eliminate their fellow pod-member Buffalo from title contention.
I’d also like to note that picking up that win against EMU last week took a lot of pressure off this Akron team. Not to look ahead too much, but Akron has a date with Kent State on Tuesday November 19. The Flashes are currently the lone winless team left in the FBS, and nothing would be sweeter for them than to pick up their only win of the season in the Wagon Wheel game. As for Akron, Joe Moorhead is facing a lot of pressure to win more than two games for the first time since the 2018. As a fan, I’m not sure I can ever be confident that we will beat Kent. But I was absolutely horrified at the thought of going into that game with just the one win. So, from my perspective, the win over EMU was huge in that it takes some of the pressure off this impending UB game as well as others remaining on the schedule.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ Model predicts a 28-21 Buffalo win.
The weather forecast is looking similar to last week. Low chance of rain to go along with a high of 59 and low of 36. It’s a perfect day to win back-to-back games at home and guarantee a winning home season. We have been fortunate as well to have fantastic weather for all home games so far, and it’s great to have beautiful weather for the final Saturday home game of the season.
Kickoff is scheduled for Noon EST and the game will be televised nationally on CBS Sports Network.