Week 13: Kent State
The biggest game on the schedule for both teams.
Here it is. The biggest game of the Joe Moorhead era of Akron football. I may be overselling it a bit, but Tuesday November 19, 2024 could go one of two ways. Either its the day that Akron breaks its streak of double-digit loss seasons, claiming back-to-back Wagon Wheel victories with their first road win in the series since 2018, or it is the day Akron’s already less-than-stellar season goes totally down the tubes, in a loss to the consensus worst team in all of the FBS. It’s kind of perfect that things have played out this way for both Akron and Kent in 2024. The teams are combined 2-18 overall and 1-11 in MAC play, but this game still feels like the Super Bowl for both squads. While neither will play for a MAC title or bowl game, both teams have so much on the line.
It really sucks that this game is being played so late in the season, and to add insult to injury, it’s on a Tuesday. I always contend the Wagon Wheel game should be played as the first MAC game for each team every season, on a Saturday, possibly even making it the homecoming game every year. This group of factors may be the only thing that could pack both Dix Stadium and Infocision Stadium. I can’t remember the last time either school had a legit crowd of 10,000. And I don’t want to hear about the attendance numbers during the Sean Lewis years at Kent. I have been told on good authority they came close to 10k actual a couple times, but never eclipsed it. Now, if they could convince the people who show up just to tailgate and leave to come into the stadium, they may be onto something.
Anyway, for the second consecutive year, Akron and Kent will play in the middle of the week. The good news is that starting next year, the game will be on Saturday for two seasons in a row before shifting back to midweek thanks to the MAC’s new policy on rotating rivalry games. The 2023 edition of the Wagon Wheel was one of the most exciting ever, as Akron came back down 27-10 midway through the 4th quarter to win back the wheel 31-27. Statuesque QB Jeff Undercuffler ran in the go-ahead score with under 30 seconds remaining to cap off the comeback. You can watch the highlights here. The Akron win ended Kent’s four-year run of Wagon Wheel wins, with three of those games not being close until Moorhead got to Akron. Since 2007, it’s been a streaky rivalry. In that time, Akron won three straight from 2007-2009, then Kent won three straight from 2010-2012, the teams split in 2013 and 2014 before Akron won four straight from 2015-2018 and Kent then did the same, winning it 2019-2022. Pretty crazy if you ask me. Despite Akron being an improved team and Kent being worse this year, I fully expect this one to be a toss-up. That’s just how the rivalry tends to be, save for the Arth seasons.
Akron leads the all-time series against the Flashes 36-28-2 (Winsipedia).
Kent State leads the Wagon Wheel series 27-25-1.
Looking at the Flashes
It’s been a forgettable year to be a Kent State fan, to say the least. As always, it began with their annual meat-grinder of a nonconference schedule. They opened at Pitt and actually held their own for quite a bit. Then, things went downhill, quickly. The St. Francis Red Flash came to Kent in week 2 for the Flashes’ home opener and annual FCS game. With a QB making his collegiate debut, the Red Flash led wire-to-wire, going up 17-0 at one point, leaving Dix Stadium with their first ever win over an FBS opponent. When things could not possibly feel any worse for Kent State, they had dates with Tennessee and Penn State lined up. Against Tennessee, a comedy of errors led to the Flashes surrendering 37 points in the first quarter alone, eventually finding themselves down 65-0 at the break. Tennessee took it easy in the 2nd half, winning 71-0. Things got really ugly for KSU the following week at Penn State. On the first drive of the game, QB Devin Kargman, who was named the starter during fall camp, was tackled from behind and he wasn’t able to get up. He would end up being sidelined for the season with a broken leg. After that, Troy transfer QB JD Sherrod came in, and eventually went down with a non-contact achilles injury. That left Tommy Ulatowski, a former walk-on who was their best QB of 2023, with 7 TDs vs. only 2 INT.
Six games into MAC play, the Flashes are still in search of their first MAC win. They certainly came close in a 37-35 loss to Ball State in week 7, but still they never had the lead and had to play catch-up to get there. Last week at Miami, Kent State recovered a Miami fumble on the first drive of the game, and cashed in with a classic Ulatowski-to-McCray score a few plays later. This marked Kent’s first lead of the entire season. That would be the only score of the day, though, as Miami would cruise from there.
How Ulatowski was not named the starter at the beginning of the season is beyond me. Head coach Kenni Burns made some cryptic statements on the matter after Kargman and Sherrod went down for the season. He made it seem as though the other guys were ahead of Ulatowski because he wanted to be sure Ulatowski was healthy and ready for MAC play. Whatever the case is, Ulatowski is certainly their best option at the quarterback position. I’m not sure how good he would be without Crishon McCray on the other side of his connections, but that very combo is what has me concerned as a Zips fan. McCray’s pass-catching ability combined with his speed and elusiveness can break any game open, especially against an Akron defense that has given up some big plays recently. Luke Floreia is the other Kent receiver who poses big play abilities. The trifecta of Ulatowski, McCray, and Floreia almost single-handedly won the Wagon Wheel for Kent last year. The three accounted for all of Kent’s touchdowns and 198 of Ulatowski’s 229 yards through the air.
On the ground, the Flashes haven’t shown to be much of a threat. Part of that is the result of a revolving door on the offensive line due to injuries. Ky Thomas leads them in rushing at 488 yards on 122 carries (4 yards per carry). In MAC play, KSU QBs have been sacked more than anyone in the league at 26. The next closest are Akron and BG with 16, which only comes out to a little more than two per game.
Defensively, Kent State is much like Akron, they don’t force many turnovers. They have one pick in MAC play and three fumble recoveries, with one in each of their last two games. This game is a battle of the MAC’s worst rushing attack (Akron) and the MAC’s worst run defense (Kent). I’ll touch on Akron’s side more in their section. Kent’s defense surrenders a whopping 246 yards per game on the ground alone, at 5.7 yards per carry. If you think Akron’s has been bad, KSU’s is about 60 yards worse per game. Opponents don’t air it out much against Kent, as they’ve faced the second fewest pass attempts in league play at 166, but they are still only 6th in the MAC in passing yards allowed per game. I’m curious to see how Moorhead approaches their defense, as he is in love with throwing the ball.
Kent’s defense has not been immune to the injury bug, either. In their game against Ohio on November 6, linebacker Rocco Nicholl was listed as out for the season. Even not playing the last two games, he is still second on the team in total tackles. Leading the Flashes’ defense is safety Josh Baka, who leads the team in tackles and even had 18 against Ohio to go along with a couple of pass deflections. Defensive end and former Buffalo transfer Kameron Olds has emerged as a big-time playmaker for their defense, leading the team in sacks with 6 and he even picked off a pass early on at Penn State. The 6’4 245lb. junior has put together an All-MAC season, and he will be hunting down Ben Finley all day.
As for the Zips
I’m not sure what to expect from the Akron offense in this one. Joe Moorhead loves to throw the football more than anyone not named Mike Leach or Kliff Kingbury in the history of this sport. I get it, do what you feel gives you the best chance to win. With that said, I found it a little strange to throw the ball 52 times in the pouring rain at NIU last week, only hitting 19 of those attempts. At the same time, receivers were running open most of the evening, and if Finley hit a few more of them and the receivers cut their drops in half or better, Akron probably wins that game. All of this is to say, I’m not sure how any coach can look at a depleted Kent State defense who cannot stop anybody from running, and choose to air it out constantly.
We have seen Akron’s offensive line come a long way over these last three seasons of Moorhead football. Joel Rodriguez has silenced the doubters. Outside of a few tough games, namely Buffalo, the line has done a splendid job protecting Ben Finley and opening up space for RB Jordon Simmons. Many of the 16 sacks Akron has surrendered in MAC play have been either due to coverage downfield or Finley making wrong decisions in the pocket. Finley has come a long way in that respect as well, but still has a lot of room to grow. If Akron’s offensive line can get a good push and allow Simmons to get a head of steam, it will be a great day on offense for Akron. Simmons and this o-line have been one of the best units in the country when it comes to attacking up the middle. According to this chart from Parker Fleming, Akron averages over 5 yards per rush when going straight up the middle, into the A/B gaps. The Zips can use this to their advantage. If they start off by running it down KSU’s throats, the Flashes may try to stack the box, leaving Adrian Norton and Bobby Golden open for quick hitters. If they decide not to put eight in the box, Jordon Simmons can finally rack up carries and eat like he has shown he can.
We’ve seen Akron’s defense do well with bending but not breaking in MAC play. Even allowing so many yards per game, Akron sits at 6th in scoring defense in MAC play. Of course, that only helps so much when the offense is 11th in scoring at only 20 points per game, but it bodes well against a team with a struggling offensive line. If Akron’s defensive backs are able to cover, we may finally see CJ Nunnally get to the quarterback a few times. Nunnally has not been able to get to the QB many times this season after an All-MAC performance in 2023. After logging 7 sacks last year, he’s got 4 this year. Now is a perfect time for him to inflate that number a bit. I’d also look for Akron’s leader Bryan McCoy to have another huge game, he’s been the most consistent defensive player on the team this year. Akron’s defensive front should be licking their chops with this matchup. Now is as good a time as ever to consistently get in the backfield and make plays, hopefully resulting in some turnovers.
As long as the coaching staff doesn’t overthink things, I can see Akron scoring quite a few points in this game. When Akron does a nice job of taking what the defense gives them, they can be really hard to stop. If the offense starts trying to hammer the square peg into the round hole again, things could get hairy in a game they really shouldn’t. This is one of the few games on the schedule where Akron is more talented at just about every position on the field, so it is even more important to play sound, smart football. Carelessness and recklessness is what causes teams to lose to those not as talented as them. If Finley makes careless throws or special teams continues to make mistakes, Akron will give Kent more and more opportunities to make plays of their own, turning over control of the game. The turnover battle has cost Akron a couple of MAC games already, and they cannot allow that to happen a third time.
Final Thoughts
Akron has not won at Kent State since 2018. That matchup was kind of similar to this one. Akron was a slight favorite and Kent was having a terrible season. But Kent came in fired up and ready to play, forcing overtime. Akron would eventually win thanks to a botched extra point in overtime, 24-23. Since then, off the top of my head, the only other time Akron has been a road favorite was in 2019 at UMass, which wound up being a humiliating loss.
Humiliating is the word I’d use to describe a loss in this game, too. The book is out on both of these teams. While Akron has left a couple more wins on the table, they have played stretches where they struggle to move the ball and have trouble keeping other teams out of the end zone. Most of the time, the difference has been in the turnover battle. It’s hard to beat anyone when you lose the turnover battle, no matter how well you play outside of those particular plays. Turnovers lead to more possessions for the opponent, and usually a loss in the field position battle as well. Those factors can be the difference between winning and losing, no matter who you’re playing.
I’d love to predict a comfortable 2+ score Akron win, and this game should be decided by no less than that. Reality is, Akron is still struggling to handle prosperity well when things are going their way. If history serves, there is a good chance this will be a fairly close game with anyone being able to win in the 4th quarter. I hope that is not the case, and Akron comes out and plays their game in a comfortable win. That would certainly go a long way in helping to further establish a more successful culture where prosperity is expected. And like I mentioned at the beginning, that third win would go a long way for me. It’s unfortunate that we’ve gotten to this point in the first place, but a win here helps to further dig Akron football out of the abyss as we build toward success in the future.
The line opened at Akron -10. ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ Model predicts a 30-24 Akron win.
It’s looking like we may see some raindrops again, as there is a high of 59, low of 53 with a chance for occasional rain later in the day.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST on November 19. The game will be televised nationally on CBS Sports Network, marking Akron’s 3rd straight game on CBSSN.